Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Over? Analyst Predicts 50% Crash to $60K
In 2021, Bitcoin hit a record high of nearly $69,000. In 2025, it soared even higher, breaking past $120,000. But now, it’s dropping again and fast. Some experts say the bull run may be over. One analyst even warned of a sharp crash to $60,000, nearly 50% below recent highs.
So, what’s going on? Is this just another dip, or is the hype truly ending?
Let’s be honest, Bitcoin has always been wild. Prices swing fast, and emotions run high. We’ve seen this before, and we might see it again. But this time, things feel different. Bigger investors are involved. Global markets are shaky. And everyday users are left wondering, should we sell, hold, or buy more?
Let’s explore what’s driving Bitcoin’s current fall, what the analyst is predicting, and whether we should panic or stay patient.
Current State of Bitcoin
We have watched Bitcoin climb fast in 2025. It broke past $120,000 and briefly hit a record $123,166. Now, Bitcoin has slipped back below roughly $115,200 amid profit‑taking and tariff worries. That break below the $116,000 consolidation band signals rising bearish pressure and possible pullback toward $112,000.
Technicals tell mixed stories. The short‑term 50‑day moving average is turning down on the four‑hour chart, warning of weakening momentum. Yet the long‑term 200‑day average is still rising, showing overall trend strength.
The Analyst’s Prediction
One key analyst, Xanrox, says Bitcoin may peak between $120K and $125K, hitting around $122,069 before tumbling to about $60K. This drop would be nearly a 50% correction from the top. Xanrox bases this forecast on Elliott Wave theory, noting that the current wave count shows Bitcoin in its final bullish phase and nearing an ending diagonal formation.
This structure often marks the turn before a bear phase. The analyst also notes past behavior: Bitcoin often reverses sharply after these peaks.
Historical Context: Bitcoin Corrections During Bull Runs
We have seen big corrections before. In the 2017 cycle, Bitcoin fell over 30% before surging again. The same happened after the 2021 highs. In each cycle, deep dips came before major rallies. These corrections often ranged between 30-50%, fitting the pattern Xanrox predicts.
That history shows big swings are normal. It also shows that dips like this don’t always mean the end of a bull run.
Bearish Indicators
We see some warning signs today.
First, Bitcoin broke its consolidation band and now trades below $116K. That break often leads to deeper drops in FXStreet. Tools like RSI and MACD show growing bearish momentum. RSI has slipped below 50. MACD crosses negative and shows rising red bars.
Second, U.S. tariff uncertainty and profit‑taking triggered a strong sell‑off on August 1, 2025. Bitcoin fell below ₹115,200 in India, while the global crypto cap dropped around 3.8%.
Third, volatility remains high. Bitcoin is more volatile than gold or the S&P 500 by wide margins. Such swings can fuel panic selling in a bear phase.
Some commentators even warn that financial bubbles are nearing a burst. Author Robert Kiyosaki has said Bitcoin, gold, and silver are all set for sharp drops soon.
Bullish Arguments: Why This Might Be a Temporary Dip?
Not all signs point down.
First, institutional demand is still strong. Investors keep buying Bitcoin ETFs. Citi analysts tie price gains closely to new ETF flows and user adoption growth. The iShares Bitcoin Trust pulled in roughly $38 billion in inflows so far.
Regulatory clarity is improving, too. U.S. laws like the Genius Act and the proposed Clarity Act are soothing investor nerves.
Second, long‑term charts still look solid. The 200‑day moving average stays up. That line often supports the price during dips.
Third, on‑chain data shows many holders are holding or even accumulating. Supply on exchanges is shrinking. That classic HODLER behavior often supports long‑term value.
Lastly, halving cycles matters too. This phase may just be a typical post‑halving profit-taking before a mid‑cycle recovery.
Broader Market Sentiment and Retail Behavior
What do normal investors think? We observe a mixed mood.
Social buzz on platforms like Twitter and Reddit remains tense. Sentiment trackers show fear rising, while dip‑buyers talk quietly about accumulating on weakness.
Google search data for “buy Bitcoin” has cooled compared to earlier in the year. Retail interest is patchy. That lack of hype may limit upside momentum.
Still, some retail users believe low prices signal a bargain. These split reactions show sentiment is unsettled.
Expert Opinions: Contrasting Views
Experts give mixed forecasts.
Some, like Global X ETFs, see potential for a 45% rally to $200K over the next year, even after recent drops. Others, like Bitwise and Standard Chartered, predict Bitcoin could reach $150K-$200 in 2025, if adoption remains strong.
But skeptics warn of risk. Renowned voices like Robert Shiller have described Bitcoin as a speculative bubble. And Robert Kiyosaki warns of sharp crashes, though he says to buy the dip if it happens.
That split view shows no clear consensus yet.
Conclusion: Is the Bull Run Over?
So, is the bull run over? We see arguments both ways.
If Xanrox and others are right, Bitcoin could fall to $60K after topping $122K. But history shows corrections often come mid‑cycle, not always at the final top.
Bullish signs of ETF demand, support from long‑term moving averages, and improving regulation may hold prices up through the dip.
We live in a volatile market. Sudden drops or strong rallies can happen fast. So we suggest staying calm. Watch key levels like $112K-$115 and $120K-$122K. Manage risk. Avoid emotional trades. And always do your own research.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Some experts expect more gains. Others warn of a big drop. Meyka believes the market may face swings, but strong demand could support long-term growth.
It’s unclear. Some signs show weakness, but support levels still hold. Meyka sees this as a possible pause, not the final end of the bull run.
A bull flag shows a rise, a small dip, then maybe another rise. Meyka views this pattern as a sign of strength if the breakout confirms.
Yes, some say it may peak in early 2025. Meyka agrees it’s possible but believes investor behavior and ETF demand will shape the final outcome.
Disclaimer:
This is for information only, not financial advice. Always do your research.